Complex Systems and Systemic Risk - Interdisciplinary Perspectives

elective courses
general courses

Ability to work with scientific text in English

The lecture is to familiarize the audience with interdisciplinary research on complex systems, the functioning of which is related to the occurrence of the so-called systemic risk.

A complex system is a very ambiguous concept, even from the point of view of the exact sciences. And even more so in social sciences and philosophy. Complex systems are the subject of research, among others biology, sociology, psychology, computer science, mathematics, automation, cybernetics and philosophy.

During the lecture, we will present an analysis of various systems considered complex and we will try to find common features, as well as compare research methods used in various fields of science.

Probably the most frequently cited example of a complex system is climate. Climate is not only „statistics of weather conditions” - it is a complex set of phenomena on the planet’s surface, responsible for the conditions that make life possible. During the lecture, energy flows in the climate system will be discussed. We will answer questions as we observe, understand and change the climate system. We will explain how the biosphere and the carbon cycle work, and the impact of its disturbances on life on our planet. We will show what its future and the future of life on Earth look like from the perspective of climate research. We will consider what lessons we can learn from this research for the future and why seemingly minor disturbances in the complex system can have catastrophic consequences

A system as complex as climate is the biosphere. According to Gaia’s hypothesis, the biosphere functions as a self-regulating system. It consists of a series of feedback loops between animate and inanimate components of the atmosphere and the Earth’s crust. The physical and chemical conditions sustained on our planet are optimal for the phenomenon of life, and the unique functioning of the Earth-Gaia suggests its purposefulness. The above formulation of the Gaia hypothesis, presented in the 1970s by James Lovelock and Lynn Margullis, was rejected by biology due to the non-compliance with the falsifiability criterion and naive teleology. The authors of its latest version, Gaia 2.0, biogeochemist Timothy Lenton and sociologist Bruno Latour try to avoid the above methodological weaknesses and at the same time propose a cross-domain research program to face the challenge of global climate change. We intend to introduce the concept of Gaia 2.0 and conduct a critical analysis of it in terms of its usefulness as a platform for cooperation between natural scientists, humanists and sociologists.

Another example of a complex system is the interaction between man and the natural environment, which we want to show on the example of the collapse of a centralized political organism, which was the Roman Empire in late antiquity in the region of the eastern shore of the Adriatic Sea. Based on the data collected over the last few years at numerous archaeological sites, we will present the impact of climate change on settlement in the Late Roman period and we will place the climate against the background of other factors forcing changes in the settlement network and migration processes.

Technology is a complex system that we deal with every day. In many ways, it contributes to improving people’s well-being. However, it also has negative side effects and may be associated with the risk of accidents, sometimes of a global or existential scale. The burning issue is to develop methods of assessing whether the risk associated with the development and use of a given type of technology is acceptable.

During the lecture, we will discuss ways to assess the acceptability of technologies based on risk-benefit analysis and the contribution of interdisciplinary research.

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Bradley, R. (2015) Paleoclimatology: Reconstructing Climates of the Quaternary, Oxford: Elsevier.

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IPBES (2019): Summary for policymakers of the global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. S. Díaz, J. Settele, E. S. Brondízio, H. T. Ngo, M. Guèze, J. Agard, A. Arneth, P. Balvanera, K. A. Brauman, S. H. M. Butchart, K. M. A. Chan, L. A. Garibaldi, K. Ichii, J. Liu, S. M. Subramanian, G. F. Midgley, P. Miloslavich, Z. Molnár, D. Obura, A. Pfaff, S. Polasky, A. Purvis, J. Razzaque, B. Reyers, R. Roy Chowdhury, Y. J. Shin, I. J. Visseren-Hamakers, K. J. Willis, and C. N. Zayas (eds.). IPBES secretariat, Bonn, Germany, doi: 10.5281/zenodo.3553579

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Knowledge:

K_W02 - The graduate understands the relationships between the various dimensions of social change generating diverse varieties of risk, especially risk concerning social "crises" such as climate and environmental risks, and knows the approaches to this process related to interdisciplinary research on this field.

K_W08 - The graduate knows the advanced new methods of analysis and interpretation used in social research, especially methods adopted from sciences, mainly physics and earth sciences.

Abilities:

K_U01 - The graduate is able to select and make a critical assessment of information concerning various types of risks coming from scientific, popular science, journalistic and other sources

K_U04 - The graduate is able to interpret social processes in an advanced and interdisciplinary way, especially processes relating to generation and counteracting of risks.

Social competences:

K_K01 - The graduate is ready to undertake lifelong learning in the domain of interdisciplinary research concerning various dimensions of risk.

Regular attendance in classes. The permissible maximum number of absences requiring neither justification nor obtaining credit is 2 per semester. Credit for a course shall not be awarded in case of absence from more than half of the classes. Conditions for passing the course are regular attendance in classes and passing exam in the form of a test.